Starting to enjoy the opportunity to engage in authentic debate!
We've been looking at a supposed 'law' of technology, that short term effects are often over-estimated & long-term ones under-estimated (Naughton). My example was this:
Example
of a technology that supports the 'law': the
car. Its invention & eventual
mass production had wide-reaching social effects that cannot have
been predicted - not only 'sweeping changes in employment patterns,
social interactions,infrastructure and goods distribution' but
also arguably 'the use of non-renewable fuels, a dramatic increase in
the rate of accidental death, social isolation, the disconnection of
community, the rise in obesity, the generation of air & noise
pollution, urban sprawl, and urban decay'
A fellow student argued for unpredicted effects of the internet, such as downloadable media leading to the recent collapse of familiar names such as HMV & Blockbuster, & I was swept straight back to the 90s & debates about Napster...
Here's what I posted. It's all very reminiscent of T171!
I wonder if those negative impacts could be thought of as unanticipated medium-term effects, with the full impact yet to emerge? Certainly digital music has led to very unfortunate consequences for people in music retail losing their jobs. But maybe in another 10 years we'll be looking back on the idea of buying music on physical media as a quaint 20th century habit & wondering why people made such a fuss about its disappearance? People will always make music & listen to music, & there are already signs of alternative market models emerging - the Pledge system, for instance, where potential customers commit their payment in advance, with funds going directly to the creative people rather than being syphoned off by record companies for the benefit of their shareholders.
Bringing that back to the topic of learning, I suppose a parallel would be the move into MOOCs & self-directed learning - all part of the democratising effect of the internet
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